Technology - Google News

High iPhone ASPs, massive holiday quarter sales predicted ahead of Apple quarterly results release
Spotify is giving family account owners a free Google Home Mini
Amazon Fire TV Stick 4K review: hold the remote

High iPhone ASPs, massive holiday quarter sales predicted ahead of Apple quarterly results release

Posted: 31 Oct 2018 08:24 AM PDT

Apple's quarterly results report arriving on Thursday should preclude a great December quarter, both Loup Ventures and UBS suggest, with the average selling price of iPhones anticipated to grow for the important holiday shopping period.

iPhone XS Max and iPhone XS

The UBS report, provided to AppleInsider, anticipates there will be 46.7 million iPhone shipments in the quarterly results, slightly below the Wall Street consensus of 48 million. The average selling price is believed by analysts Timothy Arcuri and Munjal Shah to be $750, slightly above its Wall Street survey result of $741.

In terms of product breakdown, it is anticipated the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max will make up around 16 percent of the quarter's units, roughly similar to the product mix in the same quarter for 2017. Survey data also seemingly supports the higher ASP, with 36 percent of customers said to be paying more than $900 for their iPhone, up from 26 percent in the previous quarter.

The Services arm will continue its reliable growth, increasing 21 percent year-on-year to about $10.3 billion in revenue.

Moving into holiday quarter guidance, Apple is thought to shift around 78 million iPhone units, up 3 percent on Street expectations, with new models making up 70 percent of the total. The blended ASP is thought to be $836, up from the Street survey's $805 prediction. Revenue is tipped to be 3 percent above Wall Street, at $95.5 billion for the quarter.

According to UBS Evidence Lab's Google search analysis, the interest of the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max is similar to last year's releases in the United States, slightly lower in Europe and Japan, but higher in Hong Kong. A study on product availability also suggests the iPhone XS Max supply has improved in the last few weeks, in line with UBS' Asia team's report stating iPhone XS Max procurement is up 2 million to 22.5 million while iPhone XS procurement is down 8 million.

The procurement for the iPhone XR is apparently sticking at 33 million units, with a total procurement figure for all iPhones at around 78 million.

ASP is considered the "key swing factor" for revenue, due to "little movement on total units at this point," the report states. While an ASP of $850 may be seen for the holiday quarter, UBS believes this would require a "degree of tail cannibalization by the CR that is not currently suggested by procurement."

Graph showing changes in iPhone ASP over time

In Loup Ventures analyst Gene Munster's latest proclamation, he reiterates comments made shortly after Apple's special event from Tuesday, in that the results could be validation for his perceived paradigm shift of "Apple as a Service." The previously-raised concept is that investors could soon look at Apple as a "hardware business performing increasingly like a software business," with continued Services growth becoming more important than the product cycle hype.

On Tuesday, Munster suggested Thursday's results could serve to validate three out of four pillars for the new paradigm, with iPhone units of 48.1 million predicted and considered "a non-event." The ASP will however be important, with Munster putting the iPhone at $791 against the firm's own Street survey of $756, supposedly demonstrating Apple finding more ways to earn money from its existing user base.

Services growth is pegged at 20 percent, down from the previous quarter's 28 percent growth. Approximately $25 billion in capital return could be raised, which would indicate a three-year path to "net cash neutral" as opposed to a timeline of five or more years.

For the holiday quarter guidance, Munster believes the midpoint of the range will be 3 percent ahead of Wall Street expectations, namely $96 billion, while Loup Ventures itself expects $99 billion due to higher ASP assumptions. The iPhone unit is expected to grow 3 percent, up from the sub-1-percent Street expectation.

The iPhone XR will become the most popular iPhone in 2019, Munster suggests, accounting for 38 percent of unit sales, with it becoming "everybody's iPhone" due to being a "premium device at a more accessible price point." Despite the lower cost, the iPhone XR should help improve the ASP in 2019, with a weighted ASP of $796 for that device due to the assumption only 42 percent of users will opt for the 64-gigabyte capacity, while 40 percent and 18 percent shares are expected for the 128-gigabyte and 256-gigabyte variants respectively. </span>

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Spotify is giving family account owners a free Google Home Mini

Posted: 31 Oct 2018 05:00 AM PDT

If you're the account owner on a Spotify Premium Family plan in the US, you can get a free Google Home Mini from the streaming service through the end of the year beginning on November 1st, Spotify announced today. Spotify has partnered with Google to give out the voice assistant to account owners on its family plan who sign up through the link here on November 1st.

On the surface, it may seem like a nice holiday giveaway for Family plan users (and it is in some respects). But with the growth of Amazon Music largely on the back of the Echo and the rise of smart speakers, which may be in 50 percent of US homes before the end of the year, it's also a strategic move for Spotify. YouTube Music and Google Play Music are still far from serious competition for Spotify, but Amazon's rapid growth in the music sector combined with the success of the Google Home makes this an easy and quick way to get people listening to Spotify on smart speakers before they get hooked by Amazon's easy-to-use ecosystem.

(For Spotify, it's better your kids take that Google Home to college than pick up an Echo and an Amazon Music account. Amazon has been making inroads in every part of the home, from your alarm clock to your microwave. For kids who grow up with Alexa, it's only logical to use the music service that works best with it.)

According to a report from the market research firm MusicWatch, music listeners who pay for services like Spotify, Amazon, and Apple Music are 240 percent more likely to use a smart speaker or personal assistant device than those who don't pay for music. With Spotify already partnering with Samsung for its devices including the Galaxy Home and now pushing the Google Home Mini, it's clear Spotify wants to lock in the casual listener who may be in a Premium user's house, but not committed to a streaming service yet.

Spotify says the free Google Home Mini is a limited offer, so if you want one sign up tomorrow.

Update October 31st, 9:00AM ET: Spotify says the sign up period will begin on November 1st, not October 31st. The post has been updated to reflect this.

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Amazon Fire TV Stick 4K review: hold the remote

Posted: 31 Oct 2018 06:00 AM PDT

When shoppers look for a streaming player this holiday season, they'll likely be choosing between Amazon's new Fire TV Stick 4K and the Roku Premiere I reviewed earlier this month. Both are right near the $50 mark and the most affordable 4K HDR devices you can get (assuming your TV's built-in apps aren't already good enough). Each has its upsides: Roku has the most simplistic, easy-to-use software and offers more apps, while Amazon supports Dolby Vision and lets you control the Fire TV Stick 4K with Alexa.

After spending a few days reviewing Amazon's latest, it's an easy recommendation. But unless you're already someone using Alexa daily, I don't think there's anything that makes it the definitive choice.

8 Verge Score

Good Stuff

Dolby Vision, Atmos, HDR10+, and HDR10 for 50 bucks
Remote can now power TV on/off, control volume, and change channels on some cable boxes
Fast performance and excellent stream quality

Bad Stuff

Amazon needs to chill with the self-promotion
No Vudu means few choices for Dolby Vision movies
Alexa's abilities in certain apps remain limited

One of the best changes Amazon made has nothing to do with the Fire TV Stick 4K itself. The company has improved its bundled Alexa voice remote by adding power, volume, and mute buttons that can directly control your TV. Setup is dead simple; you just push the volume buttons a couple times until Amazon figures out what TV you've got. After that, you can leave the TV clicker alone when using the Fire TV. Roku has been doing this for awhile with some of its remotes, so it's about time Amazon added the same convenience.

But Amazon is going a step beyond just handling volume and power: the new voice remote contains IR blasters, so it can actually change your TV's current HDMI input, control an attached soundbar, or even tune to a specific channel on supported cable/satellite boxes ("tune to channel 4 on cable" or "tune to ESPN on cable") — just like the Cube. The new remote can be purchased separately by existing Fire TV owners and, starting today, also comes included with the Fire TV Cube. It's a much-needed upgrade for that product, too.

But the actual Stick hardware does have its share of improvements. It plugs directly into a free HDMI port, and you run an attached USB cable to a nearby outlet to get up and running. (The USB port on most TVs isn't enough to adequately power the Fire TV Stick 4K.) In terms of audio/video presentation, the Fire TV Stick 4K checks off every box that home theater enthusiasts want: Dolby Vision, HDR10, HDR10+ (really only of interest for Samsung TV owners), and Dolby Atmos. This is the only streaming device in Amazon's lineup that does Dolby Vision; the $120 Fire TV Cube oddly lacks it, as does Roku's entire player lineup. So at just $50, the Stick delivers excellent picture and sound at a price that's substantially less than Amazon's hands-free Cube or the Apple TV 4K. It's also been upgraded with a faster processor that makes menus and starting up a video feel responsive and fast.

What's the difference between Dolby Vision, HDR10+, and HDR10?

Both Dolby Vision and HDR10+ allow scene-by-scene adjustments to HDR output on your TV, potentially allowing for better, more fine-tuned presentation if whatever content you're streaming takes advantage of the added flexibility. HDR10, on the other hand, applies one static set of HDR parameters to an entire movie or TV show. All three look quite good and offer brighter highlights — e.g. scenes involving the sky or fire/explosions — and a wider color palette than standard dynamic range.

Unfortunately, Walmart's Vudu service — a major source of Dolby Vision content — still hasn't released an app for Fire TV, which leaves you left with Netflix and Amazon. Both largely limit Dolby Vision (and HDR10 for that matter) to their original content, whereas Vudu supports HDR for many Hollywood releases.

The Alexa functionality is very appealing. Roku's voice remote lets you open a certain streaming app, search for content, or play music. But with Amazon's, you can do all of that and also check the weather, control your smart lights, pull up a feed from your doorbell cam, or access Alexa's other skills with a simple voice request. Out of the box, you've got to press the microphone button on the remote to use voice. But if you've got an Echo device in the living room, you can link it with the Fire TV Stick 4K to gain hands-free Alexa capabilities.

You can say "Alexa, show me 4K movies" and get a list of choices pulled from both Prime Video and Netflix. Or you can ask for content starring a certain actor. Alexa can also access any film in your Movies Anywhere collection and play it through Prime Video. When you search for something (or just select it with the remote), the Fire TV always favors whatever service will let you watch it for free. For example, when I pulled up Halloween, the first result shown was a free trial of Shudder, with options to rent or buy the movie from Amazon next to it. Similar to Roku, the Fire TV tries to avoid bias in where and how you stream. I also like that TV shows and movies go directly in the recents row instead of the app they came from, which makes resuming playback much quicker.

With that said, Amazon's habit of plastering its own content all over the main home screen can be irksome. There's a "Netflix recommends" row and others that mix content from different streaming apps to help balance things out. But sometimes you'll scroll through enough Amazon stuff to let out an "enough already." Does Thursday Night Football really need its own dedicated row? Beautiful Boy looks to be a fine film, but a big banner ad for an Amazon Studios theatrical release doesn't do me much good. Putting up with these little things is probably still worth it when you consider everything the Fire TV Stick 4K offers for 50 bucks.

The Fire TV home screen offers little customizability — moving tiles around in the "Your Apps & Channels" section is the extent of it — and requires more horizontal scrolling than I'd prefer. Most often, I find myself just having Alexa open whatever app I want and then controlling things with the remote from there. Couldn't be much easier.

Still, Alexa voice commands need to get better and more dependable. The Fire TV Stick 4K failed to find The Romanoffs, one of Amazon's more recent originals, instead showing me a 1960 film staring Kirk Douglas. And while Netflix recently added "deep" support for voice controls, some basic requests — like "play the next episode" or "skip this episode" — didn't work for me. "Play The Good Place" gets the job done. "Next episode" or "skip this episode"? Not so much. This shouldn't be too much to ask from Alexa, and running into walls where you don't expect them is annoying. (Hopping between episodes works just fine with Prime Video and other apps.)

YouTube doesn't exist on Fire TV as a proper app like Netflix or HBO Go. Instead, Amazon directs you to it through either its own Silk web browser or Firefox. I know that comes off as a hassle, but once you've signed into your YouTube account, it's just fine. YouTube can still play 4K content and looks great, native app or not. Watching YouTube TV is a different story. There's simply no good way of doing it on this device, which I find incredibly frustrating since I consider it to be the top streaming TV service. Hulu with Live TV or PlayStation Vue subscribers can hop right into live TV, but not YouTube TV customers. When will this silly feud between Amazon and Google end?

Despite those gripes, the Fire TV Stick 4K comes away as a very strong value. If you've got a Dolby Vision-compatible TV, it's probably a better buy than the Fire TV Cube (and will cost you less). Even if you're not a smart home person, Alexa is very helpful for quickly pulling up a show or movie, and the voice remote now has the TV control buttons that were long overdue. Amazon is getting a little self-indulgent with its ads and featured content, and the company seriously needs to work things out with YouTube ASAP, but those downsides aren't enough to ruin the rest of what's here.

But even with its excellent remote, is the Fire TV Stick 4K an obvious winner over the Roku Premiere/Premiere+? Not for everyone. Roku has better app selection, provides a simpler and more customizable experience, offers similar 4K HDR visuals, and has a voice remote that can handle the entertainment side of things. Plus, it also now supports Google Assistant to help level up against Alexa. But Alexa certainly gives the Fire TV Stick 4K powers that Roku lacks on its own out of the box. Its video looks terrific.

Photography by Chris Welch.

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