Eight big takeaways from CES 2020 1. TV makers keep looking for the next expensive thing You probably already know the drill: every year at CES TV companies do their best to come up with the next big thing that makes people upgrade. This year it's a reminder that rolling TVs are coming and so is 8K and so are radical new designs that are bezel-less or ultra-thin. You can get a killer 4K HDR TV for under $300, depending on what size you want. Right now I see a big gap between that and what's next. Samsung and LG will sell you something very expensive if they can, but broad adoption of the Next Big TV Tech isn't going to happen this year in part because we don't really know what that is yet. 2. Foldables aren't ready yet, but flexible screens are coming I wrote about this earlier but it bears repeating: most of the foldable PCs we've seen were merely prototypes and the software for them is not finished, either. The pressure on Microsoft to get Windows 10X right so that these PC makers can get their new designs out of the concept stage and onto store shelves is going to be intense. That pressure is doubled because Windows historically has a Good Version / Bad Version tick tock with Windows. Windows 10X is going to be a first cut at supporting a new, innovative form factor. Microsoft's last big swing at changing Windows for a new form factor was arguably Windows 8 on the Surface, which didn't go so well. It's a very different company now, though. Something to watch. 3. The battle between AMD and Intel will intensify AMD is taking another shot at legitimacy on laptops while Intel is taking another shot at legitimacy on graphics. Both are getting ready to support the new form factors I just mentioned above and Intel in particular is trying to invent new ones itself. New form factors always lead to a little bit of chaos, a reordering of winners and losers, and new interface paradigms for computers. But at this point in 2020 it feels like everybody is gearing up for all that chaos. By the end of the year I think we'll have a much clearer picture of how chaotic it'll really be. 4. Concepts were everywhere Again, I've written about this before but it bears repeating. The major cars we saw were concepts or prototypes. The most interesting phone thing we saw — the OnePlus Concept One — literally has "concept" in its name. (Though I will say I was taken aback by the interest in Samsung's new "lite" phones.) I'd also put Samsung's cute little Ballie robot firmly in this category, along with a few other things we saw. All this is very unsatisfying and I'd prefer more real products, obviously. But even as concepts most of what we saw didn't really feel like it had a firm direction or purpose. 5. Quibi is ambitious but unproven I said before that Quibi is the thing we'll most likely remember as the Big Launch of CES 2020. That's fitting, because Quibi's launch was fairly concept-y. We didn't get a look at the app, for example. But the thing I learned is that however ambitious you think Katzenberg and Whitman are, you're not thinking big enough. Ambition is not the same thing as success, though, and the stakes for Quibi's actual launch later this year are going to be very high. 6. Smaller companies are chafing under big tech Sonos absolutely stole the story of the show with its lawsuit against Google coming out just hours before the CES show floor opened. It started a conversation not just about Sonos and Google, but more generally about how small and mid-sized tech companies live in a world created by big tech giants (just like the rest of us). Right now, it's successful companies like Spotify and Sonos that are pushing the hardest as they probably feel the most confident they won't get crushed in a fight without anybody noticing it happened. I think in 2020 you will see more — and smaller — companies find ways to push back, perhaps with the help of regulators. (By the way, check out Adi Robertson's excellent analysis of what's up with Sonos' suit.) 7. Sex tech de-stigmatization is inevitable I don't want to suggest that most people thought there is something vulgar about sex tech and CES changed that. Quite the opposite: our cultural norms have progressed to the point where we have been having healthier conversations about sex in all sorts of contexts. Last year, the powers that be at CES showed how out of touch they were before the backlash forced the CTA to get with the times. That doesn't mean that the lobbying group is suddenly a paragon of cultural innovation — far from it. But the point is that even the CES organization had to adopt a more inclusive stance. Good. 8. Tech companies fetishized AI, 8K, and 5G a little less, finally Those three buzzwords are so totemic that Foxconn just sort of blurted them out in defense of the its factory fiasco in Wisconsin. For some time it was impossible to hear any other tech company tout a product without using one of those terms. But this year, it seems like the bubble burst on all three. Lots of companies still tout AI like it's magic, but nobody is buying it. Companies still insist on mentioning AI in their press releases, but don't wait for you to ooh an ahh anymore. We all know it's just another way of saying "computer models do it" and with a few exceptions (like Neon), nobody is pretending otherwise. for 8K, the lack of content for those screens and interest in spending gobs of money on them meant that even though we saw it everywhere, nobody was entranced by it. And as for 5G, well, the networks have started lighting up the service and everybody was forced to admit that the heavens didn't open up and rain down pure sparkles of innovation. Which meant that while 5G was everywhere, nobody acted like it was anything other than what it is right now: somewhat faster data. | 
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